How will the pandemic change our lives and economies? The Zukunftsinstitut describes four possible scenarios for how the coronavirus crisis could reshape the world.
The coronavirus is shaking the foundations of our social and economic coexistence – indefinitely. We are experiencing an uncontrollable collapse of our everyday lives and the world as we knew it. The first thing we all need to do now is to come to terms with the new exceptional circumstances – on the way to overcoming the crisis. But what happens afterwards? In such a situation, it helps to approach possible developments by means of scenarios. Scenarios outline areas of possibility that are opening up for all of us in the context of the crisis: What developments can we expect? How will the virus change our cultural techniques, values and consumption patterns, our collective mindset? The Zukunftsinstitut has therefore taken the coronavirus crisis as an opportunity to develop four scenarios that describe what our future could look like in the medium term after the pandemic. The scenarios help us to formulate a new future together. Because everything we do and decide today will have an impact for years to come. Our future is being decided now.
About the scenarios
The four future scenarios are based on two central basic coordinates that describe the possible directions of development in principle:
1. successful relationships versus unsuccessful relationships (optimistic versus pessimistic)
2. local versus global (disconnected versus connected) Based on the four possible developments, the scenarios describe the consequences for society as a whole. As with all scenarios, the illustration is exaggerated to illustrate the expected change and does not claim to be “realistic”. However, this is precisely how it helps to create orientation and open up spaces for new, forward-looking thinking.
Scenario 1 THE TOTAL ISOLATION: All against all
In the beginning was the shutdown – and the shutdown has become normality. It’s normal to scan the chip in your wrist when you enter the metro or to send each other your health data before your first date. It is normal to need a permit when leaving the country, and for countries outside the EU you even have to go through a lengthy visa procedure. Global trade is largely a thing of the past, with trade agreements between individual countries guaranteeing basic supplies.
Welcome to the Super Safe Society! Society is once again clearly defining itself as a nation. Security can only be guaranteed if the boundaries of the security zone are clearly defined. It comes first. Every man is his own person, and the state uses all available means to protect its citizens – including by stoking deep-seated fears or artificially creating food shortages. People therefore use all kinds of open spaces to grow fruit and vegetables. The black market and bartering flourish.
De-urbanization: the country is gaining power. Those who can, move out of the city, provide for themselves – and earn good money by supplying impoverished city dwellers with food. The trend towards single living, ever smaller apartments and co-living, dependence on public transport and global flows of goods has made the urban population dependent. Urban hipsters have become a precarious class.
Germophobia, the longing for sterility, has led to a continuous increase in mistrust of products whose origin cannot be clearly traced. Fruit and vegetables are clinically disinfected before consumption, and research into safe packaging is being carried out at full speed. Imports were restricted for fear that germs would be introduced from abroad via the products. There are fewer exotic fruits – but many can now also be grown in this country, thanks to climate change. Agriculture and manufacturing have experienced an enormous upswing and nearshoring has been put into practice.
What began with recommendations to cancel large events of over 1,000 people has developed into a ban on gatherings of over 10 people, for the good of the people. Public cultural life has therefore come to an almost complete standstill. Concerts and sporting events still take place, but the audience sits at home and watches the action from the comfort of their couch – free of charge, subsidized by the state. Once popular third places such as cafés are being shunned, restaurants have become ghost kitchens that serve customers meals to the highest hygiene standards. For city dwellers in particular, social contacts have shifted to virtual space.
Scenario 2 SYSTEM CRASH: PERMANENT CRISIS MODE
The virus has sent the world reeling, and it can’t get out. The focus on national interests has massively shaken confidence in global cooperation, and a return to familiar routines is no longer possible. Concerns about a new pandemic are turning even the smallest local spread of a virus into a trigger for drastic measures, from border closures to resource defense. The loss of trust in international cooperation based on solidarity is preventing long-term stability. This is how the world wobbles nervously into the future.
Friction in the multipolar world order is the order of the day: mutual recriminations, aggressive threatening gestures and nervous action in self-interest alternate with efforts towards openness and cooperation – because there is nevertheless an awareness that we are dependent on each other. Neo-nationalism is on the rise and there is a constant state of tension.
Nearshoring is also becoming a political and ideological premise with regard to national sales markets. At the same time, however, the dependence on international trade relations and flows of goods remains. Both tendencies stand side by side and rub against each other. Glocalization is also merely an expression of the discrepancies between local and international markets, which cannot exist without each other. And global cities are more than ever the most nervous places in the world: the tensions between regional, national and international flows of finance, services and goods are constantly being felt here.
High times for Big Data! The more uncertain the times, the more analysis is required. The collection and processing of large amounts of data is experiencing a continuous upswing. The development of artificial intelligence is being accelerated, not least for the simulation of crisis scenarios and crisis management. As a result, cybercrime on behalf of the state is also on the rise – with the aim of weakening international competitors. Internally, the state uses technology for surveillance: predictive analytics, the data-based prediction of human behavior, is becoming increasingly important in a society that is permanently insecure.
Privacy is therefore in strong retreat. Individual data freedom is being increasingly restricted, and data protection has largely been abolished, both in international exchanges and in dealings with our own population. Health data is becoming a matter of state – and the population is joining in, as trust in state provision and care has long since dwindled. More and more people are relying on personal responsibility for their health, digital health, continuous self-tracking and the monitoring of their vital signs using smart devices that feed personal health data into government databases at any time.
Scenario 3 Neo-Tribes: The retreat into the private sphere
After the coronavirus crisis, globalized society has returned to more local structures. More value than ever is being placed on regional products, small communities are emerging and consolidating – always in careful demarcation from the others. Sustainability and a “we” culture are values that are only thought of locally, not globally.
People no longer trust state actors and supranational alliances – and no longer trust them to act. Turning away from the global world community leads to a particularized “we” culture and the increased formation of neo-tribes. Community is sought on a small scale, as the trend towards post-individualization has become attractive to a broader mass in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
The fear of infection has fueled a retreat into the private sphere and the rediscovery of domesticity. There are practically no major events any more, but there is a lot of streaming, because you can take part in mega events via virtual reality without having to leave the safety of your own home. Neighborly help is a top priority, and there are fixed structures for helping each other in the event of a crisis. Provisions are shared or exchanged, and special consideration is given to the elderly and the weak. People are also increasingly moving to the countryside or to smaller towns – the progressive province has reached its peak.
Instead of using public transport, more and more people are switching to bicycles or e-scooters. Long-distance travel has lost much of its appeal – in contrast to surrounding regions or neighboring countries. Massive de-touristification means that entire landscapes and former tourist hotspots are recovering from overtourism. Traveling is no longer taken for granted, but is – again – seen as something special, also because it requires a lot of precautions and planning in post-corona times. Tourism is becoming even more of a resonance tourism.
The breakdown of global trade chains and the mistrust of certain countries of origin are leading to a fundamental re-regionalization. People are buying more locally than ever before, the sharing economy is gaining momentum in regional networks and traditional craft techniques are experiencing a renaissance. Urban farming and cooperatives are replacing capitalist consumption patterns, and a circular economy with autonomous ecosystems is emerging in regional communities. Concepts such as cradle to cradle or post-growth are naturally embedded in people’s everyday lives – as both desirable and necessary practices. The economy functions completely self-sufficiently on a regional level.
The coronavirus crisis has proven to be a surprising driver of new work trends towards more flexicurity: The fact that flexibility in the workplace was made possible on a broad scale out of necessity has permanently changed work cultures. Working from home is now an essential part of every corporate culture, international companies arrange meetings in VR conferences and contracts are concluded via blockchain. Digital health applications calculate the potential risk of face-to-face business meetings in advance – but these are usually discouraged anyway.
Scenario 4 ADAPTION: THE RESILIENT SOCIETY
Global society is learning from the crisis and developing resilient, adaptive systems. Deep social currents towards post-growth, we-culture, glocalization and post-individualization, which already existed before the crisis, are being catapulted from the niche into the mainstream by the collective corona experience.
The coronavirus has triggered a self-cleansing of the markets: a collective reflection on the origin of our goods that has inspired new patterns of consumption. The breakdown of global production and trade chains has led to a rediscovery of domestic alternatives. Brick-and-mortar retail, regional products and supply chains have experienced an upswing. This has not only created a sensible balance between online and offline, but above all a clever approach to globalized retail chains, a balance between local and global trade and a flourishing of direct trade platforms. Since then, weekly markets, regional producers and local online stores have been booming. The monopoly position of online retailers such as Amazon and Alibaba has dissolved in favor of several smaller players that are less dependent on global production chains and more readily available locally. Society is moving away from mass consumption and a throwaway mentality towards a healthier economic system.
Corona has made the vision of a new holistic understanding of health a reality: Health is no longer seen as something that only affects the individual body and behavior. Instead, health is viewed more holistically: Environment, city, politics, global community – all of these are important factors for human health. Global health and individual health are considered together. This new mindset is transforming the entire healthcare system: Governments, urban planning and companies are cooperating to create healthy environments for everyone. In this context, the use of digital health apps to share anonymized health data in real time has become a matter of course. Thanks to predictive health, precise predictions can be made, for example about the probability of an epidemic. It is clear to everyone that individual health can no longer be seen in isolation from the environment and society.
Global risks require supranational players that can act in a globally networked manner. The coronavirus crisis has rebalanced political power. While nation states have lost relevance, cities and supranational bodies are becoming increasingly important – a reorganization in the sense of glocalization: the local level (cities, municipalities, mayors, etc.) is directly linked to global organizations. This enables local problems to be solved quickly and creatively and global risks to be identified more quickly and tackled cooperatively. Overall, since the pandemic, humanity has become more aware of itself as a global community that has to solve challenges together. Because neither an epidemic nor the climate crisis stops at national borders. A global identity has emerged, supported by a fundamental change in values: solidarity and a culture of “we” not only with our neighbors, but also on an international and global level.
The coronavirus crisis has led to concrete lessons in the supranational handling of big data, predictive analytics and early warning systems. Artificial intelligence is now being used more constructively: not only to contain epidemics at an early stage, but to minimize all possible risks that do not care about national borders. Everyone is equipped with health tracking devices, as the global exchange of up-to-date health data enables risks to be identified at an early stage. Continuous learning from one another in a large number of functioning networks creates global resilience. This new spirit is also shaping the media landscape: constructive journalism focuses on solutions instead of spreading alarmism and fake news. This also helps to maintain a resilient and adaptive society that knows how to deal productively with crises.
The Future Institute
The Zukunftsinstitut was founded in 1998 and has played a key role in shaping trend and future research from the very beginning. Today, the company is regarded as a leading international partner for issues relating to economic and social development. As a network of experts and researchers from various disciplines, the Zukunftsistutut works with sound methods and has comprehensive strategic insights. www.zukunftsinstitut.de
